9-25-14 was up +$0.68 and the model projects that the CME Index component on the 9/25/14 kill will be up in the range of +0.50 to +0.80. The VVVs were discounted to the index component last night at the settle by 1.09. With the VVVs being down a half point this morning and the component projected to jump at least a half point, that will widen the gap to more than two points with 12-days until we get to cash settlement.

I have a hunch that may be a little too wide so I'm long the VVV with a great deal of fear and trembling!

Packers made a fairly good purchase yesterday at 102.7% of the moving average daily purchases.

But it was not index hogs that gave them good numbers.

They only got 87% of the moving average daily purchases of index hogs and this low number was in spite of the fact that packers were bidding higher as reflected in the Purchase Index being up.

Perhaps the independent producers are a bit shorter of hogs that the other producers. Since packers rely on more than 40% of their kill coming from independent producers, if they are tight of hogs as reflected by the lower purchase number yesterday, packers may need to keep their bids high for the next twelve days to bring in the index hogs.

I will be watching my screen today to see what the rest of the trading world is thinking.

As a side note, my wife and I are celebrating our 60th wedding anniversary today. We have enjoyed a wonderful companionship for those sixty years but I am saddened to say that her health is now failing.

Zeke Emanuel, author of Obamacare, says 75-years is long enough for anyone to live. So I guess she has already robbed him of five -years for which I am grateful.

Best wishes,

dhm