I spent a little time working on my model and it is projecting that the Cash Settlement Index for the JJJs will be 65.46 with a range of 64.96 to 65.96.

Packers seem to have established a down trend for their bids. Furthermore packers now seem to be liquidating their inventory of heavier hogs.
h
Here are some of my assumptions for projecting the cash settlement index:

1. Packer liquidation of their heavy hogs is now a bearish sign.

2. With producers being fairly current in their shipments and cutouts holding up fairly well, we are not going to see a major collapse in the price of hogs between now and when the JJJs go to cash settlement.

3. Over the past five-days the component has declined an average of 0.309 per day. This rate of decline is likely to continue until the JJJs go to cash settlement.

As data comes in, I will revise the projected cash settlement.

Based on this projection, I sold a pair of April 69 calls this morning at 0.70.

Best wishes,

dhm