3/21/17 was down -$0.28 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will slip between -0.15 and -0.45. Packers are gradually lowering their bids so they could bring in a bunch of cheaper hogs and drop the component more than projected.

Packers purchased 89.9% of the daily purchases with these lower bids.

The JJJs settled discount to the component by -3.46. The model projects that is plenty of "Gap" to keep cash settlement above 68.00 but I worry that the high kill we are starting to see is going to crash the component at a faster rate if product starts to back up so I going to be cautious about being long the JJJs.

Best wishes,

dhm