3/13/17 was UP +0.12 TO 72.02. The surging JJJs have closed the "Gap" to -0.99 with the JJJs still discount to the component but we might see the JJJs go premium to the component the way things are going. The kill rate is just not coming in at the lofty level projected by the last H&P report. I continue to be impressed at the precision with which the model projects the component. It is not very far in advance only a couple hours until I get the actual component but compared to when the CME posts the actual index, it leads by a couple of days. This I know, it does a LOT to help me be on he right side of front month hog moves. It doesn't do a thing for the deferreds.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 212.68#. That is -0.25# year /year. Index hogs are very close at 212.45#. Packers are continuing to bring their hogs to market heavier by +3.40# and I read this as bullish. Packer hogs made up 34.20% of the hogs killed yesterday. I have not studied this ratio very closely but it seems to me that 32% is more often what we see. Packers know how much pork they have pre-sold a lot better than I.

I'm clinging to one last long J-pig like it is gold and it seems to be.

Hey, ITZ! The June Cattle/Hog spread is getting trashed today. I came into the day short three. I cashed in two and am holding fast to the last one. If they bounce, I will sell again.

Best wishes,

Doc