3/13/17 was up $0.06 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will change in the range of +0.10 to -0.20. Even though the Purchase Index was up a little yesterday, packers still have some cheaper hogs lined up that will cause the component to be a little weak.

With firm bids, packers only purchased 83.6% of the moving average daily purchases. The kill rate for the past several weeks has been running percent or more lower than projected from the last H&P report. This really smacks of the USDA having over-counted hogs in the last H&P. I have been thinking for some time that the heavy packer hogs indicated that packers were aware that they wanted heavier hogs to get the poundage that they need and this was not a bearish signal. I had been thinking that the JJJs would have to particapate in the "Gap" closing dance and they sure did and to a greater extent than I was expecting and sooner. I had a nice inventory of JJJJ so I dd all right but, as so often the case, I could have done better.

Now I want to buy JJJs on a dip and will keep on working calendar spreads.

Best wishes,

dhm