3/2/17 WAS down -0.54 to 73.10. The model's projection was right on!

The weakness in the JJJs today has kept the "Gap" open to -5.95 with the JJJs being at a discount to the component. Packers have been doing a good job moving the product but they struggled a bit yesterday. The soft belly market was the big problem.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight was steady this morning at 212.49#. That is -0.36# year/year. Index hogs were running somewhat lighter than the rest of the hogs but they have now caught up at 212.46#. It appears that packers have been killing a few more of their "Owned" hogs and this may be backing the Index hogs up a tiny bit. Packer hogs are still 3.72# heavier than the non-packer hogs.

Having sold four puts and covering them with six short futures is working out all right today but the calendar spreads are not very active.

Best wishes,

dhm