2/27/17 was down $0.42 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.15 and -0.45. With their lower bids packers were able to purchase 102.6% of the moving average purchases. That was a fairly high purchase for a Monday and may indicate that producers are becoming more motivated sellers.

The JJJs settled discounted to the component by -8.32. The consensus of "The Market" is that packers are going to be cutting their bids. I believe concern that demand is going to drop is more of an issue rather than over supply - of course when demand evaporates that leaves over supply.

Because of the unusually large "Gap" for this time of the year, I am having a little difficulty getting very bearish the JJJs. There is already built into the Index a significant drop in the index over the next 35 trading days.

Best wishes,

dhm