2/24/17 was down -$1.86 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will drop between -0.50 and -0.80. With their significantly lower bids packers were able to purchase 111.7% of the moving average daily purchases. Producers seem to be rather willing sellers. Producers may be spooked by the market uncertainty and are wanting to keep current in their shipments. I think the non-packer producers are quite current but the packers have some heavies left in their barns.

We know two things:

1. Generally hog prices tend to show firmness in the spring to early summer.

2. Packers know how to cut their bids when their margins get skinny.

So far packers have good margins and Friday we got a taste of them chopping away at their bid prices. I am incline to keep an eye on the data that comes out each day and let that guide my action. This morning I too profits on a long JJJ pig that I bought Friday. I now have a fairly neutral hog portfolio.

Ka!! Ching!! Just made a trip to the bank with the money from closing out a long Q/V spread.

Best wishes,

dhm