2/21/17 was down -$0.05. This is the first down day for the Purchase Index since 2/2/17 and on that day it was only down -$0.01. Before that we have to go all the way back to 12/31/17 to find a down day for the Purchase Index. This has been some bull-run for the Purchase Index. The model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on yesterday's kill will change in the range of down -0.05 to up +0.25. Packers still have a fair sized inventory of more expensive hogs purchased that will be a bit supportive of the index for a day or so. It is difficult to project which batch of hogs packers will process today.

Packers made an adequate purchase yesterday at 90.2% of the moving average daily purchases. The dip in the JJJs opened the "Gap" to -7.11 with the JJJs being discounted to the index. What a difference a year can make. Last year oh this date the JJJs were trading premium to the index by +2.09!

So now I wait to see if the bull run is over or not.

Best wishes,

dhm