2/16/17 was up +0.73 to 77.05. I notice that I did not get yesterday's change posted. I was also up by +0.66. The unrelenting up-trend just goes on and on to my surprise. I say that because conventional wisdom was talking about a surge in kill that would bury demand. Day by day I follow the data and in doing so I hav pamostly been able to stay on the right side of the market but I am not burdened with a bullish bias. I have just been following the data day-after-day. My Hog Pricingodel has been a great tool but there is so much time from now to when the JJJs go to cash settlement that its value is greatly diminished but it is still the best tool in my bag of tools.

The JJJs are now trading discounted to the component by -6.45. That strikes me as being a bit wide with packers bidding higher and higher and packers having a decent margin. The dip in the cutouts yesterday got my attention. I will be watching to see if there is follow through today.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 212.43# this morning. That is -1.67# yr/yr. Packer hogs continue to be heavier by 4.36#. Packer hogs were slightly heavier this morning and non-packer hogs were lighter by -1/5#. It looks to me like packers are pulling non-packer hogs forward with their higher and higher bids and finishing their hogs to heavier and heavier weights. This suggests to me that packers are wanting more pork and the only way they can get it at this late date is by finishing hogs to heavier weights since all the hogs that are going to be available the next four months are already on the ground.

The data seems to continue to point to higher hog prices so I am long the JJJs. I sold some of them this morning thinking there might be a dip and I could get back on and pick up a few tics. So far it has not happened but there is a lot of day left. Over the past several days I have reloaded on the long M/N calendar spreads that I took profits on last week. It doesn't look like I will get to "Bank" any of them today but I'm not being pressured to put any more on my boat either.

Best wishes,

dhm