MURICO.com Forum

Re: Well Dewey, Jerry may be----
In Response To: Hogs by Jerry Welch ()

proven correct. Now that the fundamentals have caught up with the boards Space Launch, the popular train to be on is the Northbound. I have no idea whether it is packed to the rafters-----I haven't had a day where my phone has been flooded with calls wanting to be long which is usually the clue that a reversal to switch trains becomes my focus.

We have 7 days until the 2 week expiration trade kicks in. I believe DH has commented at times, that a quick 2-3 dollar plunge has a tendency to happen prior or at the beginning of the expiration trade. I have to agree with that thought and the action today certainly has the setup in place for a late day washout to test the 64.00 support area. That could even trigger a Monday plunge to test the 63.00 support area that could even go after the 62.00 support area. The hog market has been trading the addictive $5 range of 62.00 to 67.00 for 30 days for next week. So back down to 62.00 early next week would complete the 30 day cycle of a $5 sideways range.

Since Feb expires at mid month and the index is premium to the board-----I have to guess that the next 30 day cycle will be completed with April taking over as front with a $5 up move 67.00-72.00 for an attempted retest of the contract high of 72.70. Of course that's just one of my many hallucinations but the one I favor at this time. That does require that cash continues to push higher. The last week of Feb going into March 2nd, I have a nasty cycle that suggest to me that the March washout will start early rather than later. The March washout always happens, I just can't predict whether it will be a mild 3-5 dollar washout or a nasty $10 washout that if record production continues to hang with us-----can turn into a $15 washout into early April.

There does seem to be somewhat of an Addiction for the April contract to mimic what the Oct contract did. Not a solid strong addiction but it does seem to be the case very frequently. The Oct contract had a $16 washout from Sept 9th to Oct 5th, just over 30 days. That was after it had a 29 day 6 dollar sideways rally. I'm telling producers to use their ammunition for the April contract.

Messages In This Thread

Slow day-fishing waters are calm---
If - - -
Re: At the moment DH------
The fundamentals are telling me, ITZ, that - - -
Hogs by Jerry Welch
Re: Well Dewey, Jerry may be----