12/9/16 was up 0.98 to 55.88. The ZZZs are now a mere +0.99 premium over the component. This up trend is so strong that it just "Feels" like the packers are going to keep their bids strong enough to push the index up a little so I am in no hurry to cash out of the long ZZZs. At the same time, if we get a modest spike in the ZZZs, I will be happy to cut them loose and get on with looking for another trading strategy. I still have an adequate inventory of calendar spreads on my boat to manage and almost every day now there seems to be a couple more coming or/or going.

Today the 6-day moving average carcass weight crashed to 211.24# with packer hogs dropping 1.9#. That's a big drop for a 6-day moving average. Non packer hogs were also down by -0.72#. Index hogs were steady at 211.24#.

Packer hogs are now heavier than non-packer hogs by 2.39#. On Friday they were heavier by 3.58#. My mind is in over-load trying to figure out what significance I should attach to this declining carcass weights. Declining carcass weights are suggestive of declining marketable numbers. I have re-oriented my thinking from an over-supply of hogs to just an ample supply of market ready hogs and I am wondering if I now need to start thinking of a potential short supply of hogs? This is not the time of the when I would think of a short supply but I can't help but wonder what the data means.

This morning I cashed in two long ZZZs. I have now decided to put a hold on further sales because of the falling carcass weights. Packers still may have a few holiday

Best wishes,

dhm