12/8/16 was up +$1.12 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will jump between +0.65 and 0.95. The has been one heck of a bull run that hogs have been on. My early analysis of the hog market this fall was really flawed but my Hog Pricing Model corrected me and now I seem to be on he correct side of the ZZZs. Added more long last night when they dipped going into the close.

Yesterday packers purchased 96.9% of the moving average daily purchases which is a good purchase but, my, they really paid up to get them. Toward the end of the Viet Nam war there was a popular song "Where have all the flowers gone?".

And now I am singing, "Where have all the piggies gone?"

So far this week the kill is trailing the same week last year.

Since packers produce about a third of he hogs that are killed and since the know how demand is doing and since they, through their buyer, have some idea about the inventory of hogs in their hog-shed area, they are in a position to have a much better idea than I about how hogs will be coming to market. They may also, collectively, know better than the USDA. With this knowledge, then, they can decide whether to finish their hogs to a heavier or lighter weight to produce more or less pork.

Going forward, I think we need to watch the weight of packer hogs carefully.

Never have I had calendar spread trades move for me for me like they moved yesterday. I guess it is the Goldman Roll.

Best wishes,

dhm