12/8/16 was WAY UP at 53.77. That's a gain if +1.23! Traders are watching what is going on and the have ballooned the ZZZs up until they are premium to the component by +2.68. If you would have told me a month ago that the ZZZs would go to cash settlement approaching 60.00, I would have thought you were crazy but here we are. Fortunately for me the hog pricing model saw the down-trend reversal and I took some lumps on the shorts and got long. This has not been a good hog trading year for me. Fortunately my T-Bond Portfolio Management Program is doing well so I am doing quite a bit better than putting money in the bank.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady this morning at 212.13#. That is -1.98# year over year. Packer hogs were a bit heavier and non-packer hogs were lighter but not much. Index hogs were steady at 21 .2. Packer hogs are heavier than no-packer hogs by +3.92#.

It is my feeling that packers know a lot more about the hog marke than I, especially as it comes to the inventory of market ready and near-market ready hogs. I now believe that watching the weight of packer hogs relative to non-packer hogs will give a snap-shot view of whether packers are perceiving a plentiful supply of hogs is available or whether there is a dry spell coming. This year I didn't know what to make of the packers finishing hogs to heavier weights. Next year I might.

Still long the ZZZs and GGGs but not as long as I was. More of my calendar spreads were delivered across the pond this morning and my boat is riding a little high in gthe water. I'm starting to get anxious about re-loading the boat. Ka!! Ching!!! there went a pair of long G/J spreads!

Best wishes,

dhm