11/17/16 was down -$0.29 and tbe model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will slip between -0.05 and -0.35. Packers are continuing to trim their bid prices everywhere except the eastern corn belt. The supply of hogs seems to be a little tight there and the price is firm.

Packer bought 87.3% of the moving average purchases yesterday. I suspect packers will buy a lot of hogs this weekend. They often do.

The futures are now essentially trading at the component but the uncertainty about the supply of hogs and the weakness in cutouts yesterday will put a lot of volatility into the price of hog futures. I'm surprised to see the pre-opening be so strong this morning. I took off a couple of short ZZZ yesterday. It looks like I will be able to put them back on this morning. The question is, "Do I want to?"

Probably. The component is still in a down trend, hams and bellies were weak yesterday and the peso is down quite a bit. A lot of hams head south of the border and a weak peso my slow shipments of hams there.

Best wishes,
dhm