down -$0.57 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.20 and -0.50. This suggests that the down-trend is still in play. The kill contunues to exceed projections from the oast H&P report. For the last five weeks the kill has been +4.8% over the same period last year. That is about 3% more than implied by the report. Carcasses are coming in at a lighter weight and that is helping some, but pork production is still at a high level. The ZZZs settled discount to the component by 1.37 last night. If we get the decline in the component that the model is projecting, that will likely put downward pressure on the ZZZs today.

Historically there is a strong tendency for the kill to be strong until the ZZZs go to cash settlement. The ligher carcass weights may be indicating that producers are quite current in their shipments. Packers may have let their hogs back up a little.

Yesterday scalping was good and this helped take the pressure off my margin created by the bounce the ZZZs and GGGs have taken.

STill short ZZZs and GGGs but not the same ones with which I started the week.

Best wishes,

dhm