plus 5.52% over the same period last year. That is between 350K and 500K more than I was expecting based on the last H&P report. These extra hogs may be producers pulling hogs forward or producers may have more hogs than the USDA projected or a combination of both.

Looking at the six-day moving average carcass weight, from mid-September until now it has gone up +1.97#. During the same time period last year it moved up just 1.14#. That doesn't sound like producers are pulling hogs forward if their weights are going up faster this year than it did last year. In fact they may be falling behind in their shipments. Getting behind in shipping hogs this time of the year could be a BIG problem for producers and perhaps packers but so far packers' margins appear to be favorable.

Pre-opening is suggesting that the ZZZs and GGGs are going to open firm this morning. Traders don't seem to be worried about a glut of hogs.

And so the suspense continues.

I'm still short the ZZZs and GGGs and I'm suspecting Dewey is also.

Best wishes,

dhm