9/16/14 was up 0.85 to 104,57 putting the VVVs at a premium of 2.28 to the component.

The six-day moving average carcass weight has now eased to 212.20#. That is +8.33# yr/yr. Packer hogs are declining more than non-packer hogs. In the last week packer hogs have dropped about a quarter of a pound more than non-packer hogs. This is showing up in the percentage of packer hogs killed. The 5-day moving average percentage of packer hogs has moved up to 34.5%. It generally runs around 32%. This may be telling us that packers know there is going to be a decline in hog prices so they are getting theirs marketed ahead of the independent producers.

There is no doubt about it; packers have an edge over the rest of us! And right now they may be taking advantage of their inside knowledge by hurrying their hogs to market.

So far this week the kill rate is coming in about as projected from the H&P report. My figures show that the number of hogs marketed since 6/1/14 may be down as much as 1.0 million from the projection. Some of these may be retained gilts. Most likely some producers have been dragging their feet a little in shipping hogs causing the carcass weights to be above year-ago levels.

If producers hurry some of these heavy hogs to market, it could exert a little downward pressure on the Index. It is possible that 210# plus hogs are going to be the new norm with feed prices down.

Best wishes,

dhm
move up.