10/13/16 was U P +$0.34 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will change in the range of +0.05 to -0.25. Packers still have an inventory of more cheaply purchased hogs to keep the component on some downward pressure for another day or two - - - possible three if packers continue to bid higher.

With their firmer bids, packers were only able to purchase 83.8% of the moving average daily purchases.

Yesterday I was wondering if the six-day moving average carcass weight was suggesting that the high kill rate could be, at least in part, producers liquidating their inventory of market hogs by pulling them forward. So this morning I thought I would take a look at the change in the 6-day moving average carcass weight last year compared to this year. Last year from mid-August until mid-September the weight increased by 0.85#. This year it has gone up by 3.27#. Is this telling me that producers have NOT liquidated their inventory of market hogs but are actually falling behind in their shipments? If that is happening, it is not a good idea.

But why were packers bidding higher yesterday? The hog market is shaping up to be an interesting and confusing fall.

I may take one of the VVVs to cash settlement if I don't get a good chance to sell it today.