10/12/16 was down -$0.21 and the model projects that the component on the 10/12/16 kill will drop between -0.10 and -0.40. Packers purchased 84.8% of the moving average daily purchases.

I keep looking at the high kill rate for the past three weeks and the modest increase in the 6-day moving average carcass weight and think there is a good chance that producers have been doing some liquidation of their inventory of market hogs. It's too early to tell for sure if this has been happening, but it could take the pressure off slaughter capacity down the road a ways.

It appears to me that packers' margins are quite good right now, so they have the incentive to step up and kill the hogs if producers will just ship them at the bargain basement prices that packers are willing to pay.

Best wishes,

dhm