MURICO.com Forum

Comments by Jerry Welch

The only group of markets over the past few weeks that definitely appear bullet proof are livestock. Prices for live cattle, feeders and lean hog futures have rallied dramtically the past 3 weeks. Cattle and feeders have posted new all time highs while lean hog futures have rallied to highs not seen since late July. No other markets have been doing as well as critter futures.

Despite the wildly bullish rally with livestock prices the past 3 weeks I continue to have no faith in nearby cattle and no faith in back month hogs either. I would rather sell front cattle and back month hogs than trade the complex from the long side of the ledger. I mentioned that yesterday, here on Inside Futures.

And like, "a moth to flame" here is the Special Email Alert I sent out yesterday, to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter and broker clients.

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"SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!(from yesterday at 5:11 p.m)"

As a new trade, sell(1)more October live cattle at $160.50 or higher. The last is $160.50 with a range of $160.62 to $160.27. Cancel stops on existing shorts in October cattle. I will come out of the day short (2)contracts.

Also, sell(1)October lean hog at $106.40 or higher. The last is $106.37, low tick with a high of $106.62. Use a $108.00 stop, close only.

Historically, it is not unusual for stocks, bonds and cattle to move in the same direction. If that relationship can reassert itself, selling front month livestock futures here and now may work out. Also, anything in the critter complex that does end in the red will be posting a downside reversal.

The time is 5:11 p.m Chicago, on a Tuesday