10/6/16 crashed by -0.963 to 53.235. That closes the "Gap" to -2.47 and the down trend is still intact. The model did a nice job of keeping me on the correct side of the VVVs for a nice correction ride upward. It looks like from now to cash settlement I will need to trade the VVVs with short-term technical analysis rather that fundamental guidance from the model.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 210.68# this morning. It was mostly the packer hogs that were heavier. They are now +0.73# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Year over year carcasses are down by -0.68#. It appears to me that packers may have expanded production more than the non-packers but it is probably the non-packers who are suffering more from this over-expansion.

Index hogs were a bit heavier at 209.49#.

Best wishes,

dhm