10/3/16 was down -0.48 to 55.17. That gives us a "Gap" of -6.05 with the VVVs at a discount to the component.

The six-day moving average carcass weight dropped nearly 1/2# to 209.90# and it was both packer and non-packer hogs that were lighter. That is -0.63# year/year. Packer hogs are now +0.51# over non-packer hogs and index hogs are lightest at 209.22#. Maybe all this kill over the past two to three weeks has pulled hogs forward a little and got producers very current.

I notice the price of hogs in the eastern corn belt has been holding up a bit better than the other markets.

With only nine-days until cash settlement for the VVVs and a "Gap" of more than six-points, we might have a situation wherre technical/emotions factors will trigger a "Gap" closing, knee-jerk move to the up-side. So I dressed up in a Haloween costume complete with a "Dewey Hat" and went long nine VVVs and have an order working for #10.

This may be a sure sign that the VVVs are now ready to fall out of bed and you don't hit the ceiling when you fall out of bed!

Best wishes,

dhm