9/27/16 was down -$0.55 and the model projects that the component on the 9/27/16 kill will drop between -0.35 and -0.65. When traders beat the VVVs down to 51.70 it opened the "Gap" to -5.97 with the VVVs at a discount to the component. That may be a little too low if normal slaughter is able to take place. The model projects a cash settlement of 52.42.

That is based on packers having slaughter capacity to keep hogs moving through the plants at a normal pace. If it turns out that the supply of hogs mushrooms to the point that plants are overwhelmed, things could get ugly.

Friday we get the H&P report. I'm in the dark as much as the next person although it does appear that there will be an upward-adjustment to the under 50# hogs in the last report because of the high kill rate lately.

I still have one short VVV hanging around..

Best wishes,

dhm