9/16/16 was down -0.93 to 61.82. I see the "Gap" is now -6.87 with the VVVs at a discount to the component. Traders think packers are going to continue dropping their bids. Looking at how much the component dropped today, it won't take a lot of days like that to close the "Gap".

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 210.01#. That is only -0.37# year/year. Lighter carcasses had been helping hold the amount of product down but it looks like that advantage is evaporating away. I have been expecting carcass weights to increase with the the cooler weather and it looks like we are getting it. Index hogs are also getting heavier at 209.34#. Both packer and non-packer hogs were heavier.

I have piled a bunch more V/Z spreads on my boat today. The last time I did that it worked but it may be a different story this time around. Scalping the VVVs has worked today.

Best wishes,

dhm