9/14/16 was down -$0.78 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will fall between -0.35 and -0.65. Packers were quite stingy with their bids yesterday and they only purchased 78.8% of the moving average daily purchases. Don't know whether producers were balking at the lower bids or whether packers just didn't want hogs. Cutouts are holding up fairly well and I think packers' margins are fairly good so producers may have been dragging their feet about shipping hogs. That does not seem to be a good idea to me considering the down-trend we are in and the prospects for larger kill numbers coming on.

Traders have pushed the VVVs down to the point that they are discounted to the component by -8.90. With a "Gap" like that, we may be being set-up for a limit-up, stop-running surge as a pre-expiration "Gap" closing exercise. Stranger things can happen in the hog market.

I won't try to trade a limit-up move.

I piled a bunch of long Q7/V7 calendar spreads on my boat. Also was able to move a couple of the V/Z spreads off. If someone needs some of the Q7/V7, they are available at my price.

Best wishes,

dhm