The CME Component on the - - -

9/3/14 kill was UP 0.16 TO 95.53. The surge the VVV piggies made today has them premium to the index component by +8.07. The swing between the VVVs and the Index has truly been amazing and we have more than a month left to try to figure out where the cash settlement will be. I think the VVVs are priced a little too high but my conviction is not strong enough to get short.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 212.18#. That is +8.54# yr/yr. Most of the heavy weight came from packer hogs. They gained nearly a pound and non-packer hogs were barely up.

Between the packer submission problems and the USDA site going down for a short period, my information flow suffered. As it turned out, the Purchase Index would have given me a clue that the CME Index component on yesterday's kill would be positive but not enough to make me use it make a trade.

I don't know whether the low kill rate is partially caused by gilt retention or not, Dewey. Looking at the behavior of the Z/G spread today, it appears that traders feel there are a lot of pregnant sows that are farrowing this month and last.

Best wishes,


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The CME Component on the - - -
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