8/29/16 was down -0.40 to 66.11. That was a bigger drop than the model projected. The VVVs are now trading discount to the component by -4.36. On average over the past eight-years from this date until the VVVs expire the index has dropped 3.00. The dynamics may be right for a bigger drop than that this year if broilers keep coming on the way they are and the USDA had the last H&P report correct.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady with a touch of weakness at 207.65#. That -1.34# year over/year. Index hogs are lighter at 206.79#. Packers have really reduced the weight of their hogs from the ultra-high mid-April level.

I'm still cautiously short the VVVs because of the possible surge in the kill rate when the weather cools and fresh corn is in the feeders. "B I G D O G'' almost got an uphill avalanche started this morning but it was quite a bit after the opening.

Best wishes,

dhm