8/29/16 was down -$0.23 and the model projects that the component on the 8/29/16 kill will drop between -0.05 and -0.35. It appears that the down trend is still intact. There is some "B I G D O G" trader in the pre-opening trying to scare the bears out of their shorts with a"Gap-Up Bid" of about a point on twenty-one contracts. The fundamentals just don't seem to be saying there is that much pent up demand for pork.

While it is true that cut-outs were firm yesterday so was the carcass weight suggesting that producers are NOT short on market ready hogs. Most likely retailers have their cases loaded for the holiday trade this weekend so I don't get the strong pre-opening bid unless it is a packer who knows a lot more than I.

Looking at the pricing of the purchases packers made, it does appear that hogs are in slightly shorter supply in the eastern corn-belt and more plentiful in the other markets.

Now to see if "B I G D O G" is able to start an up-hill avalanche. He seems to be backing-off a little.

Best wishes,

dhm