in thinking, there will be more downside into the fall months. The addiction is the Nov time frame. Yes, the market is due a correction retracement rally---b--u--t---that does not mean it has to be here and now. I'm sure you have already given that thought a double take. I sure have after yesterdays rejection with a failed Launch. Maybe there will be a second Launch attempt that may or may not be successful. I have to plan for either one----I sure don't like the chart pattern structure I'm currently looking at with a potential south end fishing hole waiting for the dinner bell to ring that would probably have a solid panic response from bottom pickers. The UP momentum triggered Monday got a Gut Punch and true reversal UP momentum weekly buy signals for Oct do not trigger until a weekly close above 66.27 happens. The $5 range addiction looks to have a strong hold for several weeks of sideways trade since the break above 62.00 did not cause any panic.

I may have miscalculated the Launching Pad parameters needed to get a successful Launch. I probably assumed wrong that a break of 62.00 would bring more short covering than we got. It's too easy to believe, under normal circumstances, that $60 hogs are too cheap and a $10-$12 rally should happen. I have respect and FEAR what the 2nd year of record production and the 9 year Death Cycle low due in the next 2-4 months can do/has done in the past to the hog market. The packers know better than us, the mountain of pork in the freezers and what's in the 4th quarter pipeline------they could have been the more than willing selling pressure with that $5 bounce to begin the week. They will probably let the market drift sideways in a 4-7 dollar range until the BIG 4th Qtr surge is about to hit the plants.

The heavy-heavy resistance of 64.70, Oct's July 25th bounce high before falling $7.10 to the 57.57 Aug 4th low is the resistance break needed to trigger the first round of UP momentum to have any thought of filling the weekly continuation chart gap @ 66.82. Daily closes above 61.85 does open the door to go after the 64.70 target but as we saw yesterday----the market----slammed that door shut. Now it has to try again to make another run at it--------this time the bears will probably be more convicted to selling a new high or even 62.80-63.00 area. I have alerted my producers that the first $5 bounce has been attacked, we can't assume anymore that we might get a $10 rally. We have our next round of hedge orders @ 62.50-63.50 for Oct and 58.50-59.25 for Dec to make sure we at least get 25% of each months marketings, of our price protection back on. If the 64.50 and 66.00 targets happen we will have orders waiting. If the $10 rally to 68.00 happens, so be it, the packer will probably be paying more for our Oct hogs than we expected. We have already deposited $12 or more on 50% of our Oct production anyway.