8/16/16 was DOWN -$0.09. When the noon reports came out, it looked like the Purchase Index might be up but when the dust settled it showed a little weakness. Packers still have an inventory of cheaper hogs so the model projects the component on the 8/16/16 kill will ease between -0.10 and -0.40. When coupled with the lousy cutouts, it just might be that the VVVs will show a little more weakness. Packers made a reasonable purchase with mildly lower bids at 94.3% of the moving average daily purchases.

I just might have to face the music and stop out of these VVV hogs. I got stopped out when I was short and now I get stopped out when I am long. Not a pretty picture. Fortunately the spreads have helped as well as some help from bonds. Otherwise I would feel really put upon.

Best wishes,

dhm