8/5/46 was down -$0.76 and the model projects that the component on Friday's kill will drop between -0.55 and -0.85. Even with their lower bids packers were able to make a very solid purchase at 123.8% of the moving average daily purchases. This smacks of producers being motivated sellers of hogs.

Any why would they be motivated?

- Maybe because the have plenty more hogs coming on

- Maybe because they know prices almost always decline in the fall as the kill rate goes up.

- Maybe it is because the weakness of the cutouts has them spooked.

- Maybe it is because packers have not been taking quite as many hogs while they were liquidating their own hogs and now packers are taking more outside hogs.

Since I just have numbers to work with it is sometime difficult to know what they mean.

This I know, the kill is presently exceeding expectations generated by the last H&P report and that does not create a bullish environment.

So -

I rode some short VVVs over the weekend and the pre-opening quotes are NOT telling me I made a mistake.

Best wishes,

dhm