8/3/16 was down -0.59 and the model projects that the component on the 8/3/16 kill will be down between -0.50 and -0.80. And I am sorry to say for the producers' sake that down trend is still alive and well. This usually happens in the fall but it is coming a bit earlier than usual this year. It seems to be the weakness in the cutouts that is driving the index down. It is especially the bellies that are being hit hard. The BLT season is not coming to the rescue.

Packers bought 96.4% of the moving average purchases yesterday.

I'm still short the VVVs and it does not look quite so bleak for me as it was a few days ago.

Best wishes,

dhm