8/1/16 was down -$0.49 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.50 and -0.80. The down-trend remains in-tact.

With their lower bids, packers purchased 95.6% of the moving average daily purchases.

The kill rate continues to be higher than projected from the last H&P report although yesterday it was a bit soft and cutouts remained stable.

Now to see if the strength in the QQQs carries over today. So far it is not. It does not appear to me that yesterday's strength in the QQQs was supported by the fundamentals. Of course the futures do not HAVE TO follow the fundies.

I'm still short the QQQs. It isn't often that I act on a fundamentally driven market bias; rather I stick with spreading. In so many cases when I act on a fundamentally driven market bias, I get clobbered. Now I'm watching to see if the -12.24 discount the QQQs are carrying to the component is so great that it will encourage traders to turn bullish the QQQs.

Best wishes,

dhm