8/28/14 was down -$1.16 and the model projects that the CME Index component on the 8/28/14 kill will skid down by something in the range of -1.15 to -1.45. The jump in the VVVs this morning has closed their discount to the index to less than a buck. If the VVVs can hang onto their morning gains and the component drops as projected, the VVVs will go premium to the component by as much as a buck when the 11:00 AM report comes out.
With a long weekend coming up, I'm suspecting there are a lot of traders who have started their weekend already so the volume could be light. That makes the right environment for a lot of volatility to surface and stops to be run.
It is also the right environment for spreads to be dead-in-the-water. I may turn my computer off and start my week end when the 11:00 report comes out.