7/8/16 was down -$0.57 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 7/8/16 kill will shed between -0.35 and -0.65. The down trend seems to be firmly in place now.

Packers made a solid purchase at 135.3% of the moving average daily purchases.

We are now about five weeks into the kill based on the last H&P report. According to my records for the last five weeks the kill this year is running -0.48% below the same period last year. The H&P report pegged the 180# and up hogs at +1.20% year/year. I would think, then, that we should be seeing 1.2% more hogs being killed.

I'm seeing about a 2.0% discrepancy.

Not only that, but the carcass weights have been consistently running about 2.0# under last year. I'm scratching my and thinking, "Where are all these hogs that are causing the price to trickle lower?"

Maybe they are just about ready to bust out of producers' barns in a big, BIG way.

So far this year, according to the USDA, pork production is running -0.6% below last year. I haven't counted the days. Perhaps there is one less kill day this year. Even so, that is not exactly a glut of pork and, if I remember correctly, the freezer stocks are a little below last year.

Color me a bit confounded!

Best wishes,

dhm