7/1/16 was WAY DOWN -$1.28. Packers really were letting the air out of the price of hogs on Friday. They made only a fair purchase at 92.4% of the moving average daily purchases. I was not expecting the final Purchase Index to come in so low. Both the noon and afternoon reports were showing fairly firm packer bids.

The model is projecting that the component on Friday's kill will drop between -0.50 and -0.80. This may be one of those days when packers run a bunch of cheaper hogs through their plants and the component will drop somewhat more than the model projects.

So far the pre-opening bids are not taking a hit from the weaker morning reports. Perhaps the fact that the NNNs are already discounted 1.43 below the component is helping them hold up a little.

Best wishes,

dhm