6/17/16 was up +0.37 to 82.81. That has cut the "Gap" of the premium the NNNs are running over the Index component to 3.82. Over the past four days the component has gained an average of 0.49 per day. If that same rate of gain were to happen until the NNNs go to cash settlement the index would jump 4.65 points.

But that rate of gain may not happen. Right now packers are probably busy rounding up hogs to meet the Independence day demand surge. After that, it would not be surprising to see their bids weaken. And so the chase continues as we try to guess when the supply/demand curves cross.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 211.87#. That is -0.70# yr/yr. Packer hogs are only 0.28# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Back in the middle of April they were more than 3.5# heavier. Packers have really been getting current with their shipments. The index hogs continue to be lighter at 210.14#. I'm quite sure the hot weather is slowing hog growth.

Best wishes,

dhm