4/19/16 was up +$0.17 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will change between -0.05 and +0.25. Probably just a little strength. The surge by the MMMs has them now trading premium to the component buy 12.83. That is quite a premium!

On average over the past twelve years from this date until the expiration of the MMMs, the index has gained+4.35. But there is quite a range in the changes. In 2013 it gained 21.17! Two year later (2015) it dropped (17.07). If those two highs and lows are dropped from the average calculation, the the average goes to a gain of 4.87.

During the six "UP" years the average jump was 11.93.

During the six "Down" years the average drop was -5.13.

Ka!! Ching!! Just hurried to the bank to deposit the profits from selling a long N/Q spread that I just sold.

"The Market" is planning on this being an up year so history seems to say 11.93 would be an average "Up" year. With the MMMs premium to the index by 12.83, most of the gain might already be priced into the MMMs.

I'm flat the KKKs and MMMs as out-rights but I do have quite a boat load of calendar spread. This morning I added to my boat load three short V/Z spreads at 4.95.

Best wishes,

dhm