4/11/16 was UP +0.24 to 66.78. That was enough to firm the JJJs a little but they are still trading discount to the component by -0.20..

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 214.05#. That is -0/79# yr/yr. Index hogs are lighter at 213.32# and packer hogs are heaviest by +3.04#. Packer hogs only made up 29.07% of the kill yesterday but with that light kill their carcass weight dropped more than 1/2 pound. I am now beginning to think that packer-producers may be short of hogs and this is the reason they have been running up the weight on their hogs. Producers of index hogs seem to be keeping very current in their shipments.

I view this as supportive of the index and feel that there may be a little bit more strength in the index before the JJJJ pigs die in two-more days.

Ka!! Ching!! Just made a trip to the bank to deposit profits from a long J/K calendar spread. I tell you, I was plenty happy to make that deposit. I only have two more J/Ks to get rid of and that will be a happy day if I am able to do so profitably.

Scalping the JJJs from the long side has been good business this morning. The moves are not great but it works if there are more numbers involved. The Hog Pricing Model is a mighty handy trading tool when the front month becomes very short term. Yesterday I was left quite confused but today the data cleared things up.

Best wishes,

dhm

B