8/18/14 was down -$1.63. The model projects the CME Index component on the 8/18/14 kill will shed between -1.65 and -1.95. The HEV4 futures are discounted to the Index by 15.82. Last year on this date the discount was 13.87 so we are in pretty much the same ball park.

Yesterday with their bids quite a bit softer, packers were able to make a solid purchase of 120.5% of the moving average daily purchases. That's quite a large number but by no means a record. It may indicate that producers are quite willing sellers which would be expected as we look advancing kill numbers squarely in the face and falling cutout values.

The uncertainty surrounding the VVVs has reluctant to take much of a position other than a quick scalp.

Best wishes,

dhm