3/22/16 was down -$ .44 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.15 and -0.45. With the 6-day moving average carcass weight showing a little weakness, my thinking is that producers may be quite current in their shipments and packers know this and are holding their hogs to mildly heavier weights to make up the poundage.

Everyone and his cousin knows that the kill rate tends to go down in the springtime but sometimes the timing is a bit off giving traders and packers an opportunity to take the index and the futures up and down. This makes good fishing for ITZ, a hedging challenge for producers and periods of euphoria and heart-burn for Dewey and me.

With the JJJs trading premium to the component by 4.18, I continue to think the stage is set for a two to three point sell-off in the JJJs to get them trading more in lock-step with the component. Maybe the H&P report with be the trigger that ignites that move.

Best wishes,

dhm