3/21/16 was down -0.04 to 65.97. The JJJs premium has now been cut to +3.50. Historically over the past five-years from this date to cash settlement the index has lost -2.89 from this date until cash settlement for the JJJs. The most it gained in that time period was 3.91 in 2012. In 2011 it actually lost -9.19. This tells us that there is potentially a lot of movement possibleover the next few weeks.

The six-day moving average carcass weight dropped to 213.07# That is -1.185# year/year. In looking at the kill, packer hogs only made up 29.07% of the kill yesterday. Generally packer hogs make up about one-third of the kill. Packer hogs are coming to market (on a six-day moving average basis) at 214.24# compared to 212.98# for index hogs.

I'm wondering, are packers sensing that the supply of hogs is going to get tight so they are holding their hogs for heavier weights and killing index and other hogs? Down the road they could then have more hogs at a heavier weight to kill when prices are higher.

I remain convinced that packer have a better handle on the number of hogs available to kill than he rest of us. And I think they trade the futures right along with us.

Best wishes,

dhm