3/17/16 was down -$0.31 and the model projects that the component on the 3/17/16 kill will change in the range of+0.05 an -0.25. It looks like we will see a little weakness but not much.

Packers did not get a very good purchase yesterday as they bid lower - 80.3% of the moving average purchases. Cutouts are behaving a bit erratic. One day they are up a buck or so and the next day they are down that much. Yesterday they were on the down movement.

My bias is that the JJJs are going to have to cough up some of the premium they are holding to the component. If producers are a bit short of hogs, I will have to forget that notion. The kill this week is running -3.65% below the same week last year. I'm suspecting some plant is having a problem and low kill does not represent a declining hog supply but it is worth watching.

Best wishes,

dhm

PS: I noticed that I forgot to post the component change yesterday. It was a penny to 66.79.