3/15/16 was down -$0.02 and the model projects that the component on the 3/15/16 will will change in the range of +0.15 to -0.15. In other words it will be nearly unchanged.

Packers made only a fair purchase yesterday at 83.2% of the moving average daily purchases. I think hogs are moving to market quite well and packers seem to be moving out the product at prices that give them fairly good margins. That suggests to me that the chances are a fairly good that prices are going to be fairly stable for a while.

The thing that is not clear is how long is "A While"?

The last H&P report pointed to possibility that we may see a slightly smaller kill later this spring. I keep watching to see if a reduced kill is beginning to show up. So far this week it is coming in close to projection.

The JJJs are trading premium to the component by 3.95 are there are only 22-days until going to cash settlement. It would not surprise me to see the JJJs make a limit down move one of these days to get them moving in lock-step with the Index. Moves like that occur from time to time when situations are like this.

Best wishes,

dhm