made an insignificant move lower to 213.48#. That is +9.54# yr/yr.

The swine scheduled for delivery report shows that packers have 227K fewer hogs scheduled today than they had on this date one-week ago. The scheduled number is down 234K (10.47%) from the same date one-year ago. Based strictly on the last H&P report, the scheduled number should be down somewhere around 4%.

The explanation could be that producers have fewer numbers than the USDA showed -

Or -

It could be that packers are not wanting to line up a lot of hogs in front of an impending take-down in their bids.

I'm suspecting producers have the hogs but packers are just not buying but will wait to buy until they have let a little more air out of their bids.

There are two reasons I'm suspecting this scenario: (a) The six-day moving average carcass weight is running nearly 10# heavier than one-year ago and (b) the kill since 6/1/14 is about 2.5% below what it should be based on an analysis of the 6/1/14 H&P report.

This combination of heavier hogs and fewer of them being killed suggests to me that producers have fallen out of currency in their shipments.

The table below shows the week-by-week actual kill compared to the projected kill and last year's kill during the same time period.

I'm now flat the VVVs but will be looking for a good opportunity to short the VVVs next week even though the gap between the VVVS and the index is historically wide.

Best wishes,

dhm