3/9/16 was up +0.12 to 66.62. That's a little less than the model projected. With the JJJs trading at 72.25 they are premium to the component by 5.63.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 213.19#. That is -1.45# yr/yr. Packer hogs were heavier than the non-packer hogs and they are now running +1.81# over the non-packer hogs. Packer hogs are bringing up the rear at 212.96# but the seem to be closing the "Gap".

The data seems to have the stage set with enough uncertainty to give plenty of trading opportunities this spring. My bias is that the JJJs and MMMs will both go to cash settlement a point or two above where they are now trading and that the KKKs will move up enough to partially close the spread with the MMMs. Between now and cash settlement there will be sufficient volatility to make life interesting.

This morning I was more in sync with the spreads and kicked some off my boat and re-loaded a couple. Generally I don't get nearly as anxious about a spread trade as an outright.

Best wishes,

dhm