I knew it was a strong possibility but I didn't expect it. I had to pack up my fishing gear at mid day because of the crop report and a heavy load of producer phone calls the rest of the morning. I was prepared for the unexpected with numerous 72.00 hedges at risk if a break of 71.40 happened. I had 71.45 stops working on half of the producer hedges, now I have to decide what the next move is and whether we reset at the next resistance or just forget about it with the seasonal upswing so near.

On the other side of the coin, the market may be getting ahead of itself in anticipation. I have seen strong markets going into April expiration-----all of a sudden realize they had gone to far to soon. The 85.00 area is weekly chart resistance from last years high and 2016 is the first year for my 9 year, hog market cycle low to surprise everyone. 2015 was just the warning shot for the bears to prepare for the next battle of "slaughter the bulls". We are not showing oversupply at the moment but the last 5 months I've heard of a lot of expansion. The trade always turns positive when it starts to smell the seasonal timeframe for up movement but that up movement can hit a brick wall before the bullish anticipated June is front month.

One thing that always happens 5-6 months before the final swing cycle drop to the bottom for every 9 year low--------is the bullish fever that sets in during the first half of the year