3/8/16 gave me a surprise and came in +0.03 to 66.50. That's a little different than projected by the model. Packers have quite an inventory of hogs purchased and it is difficult to know which batch they run through on a given day but by and large the model does quite a good job in projecting the change in the Index.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was 213.00# this morning. That is -1.55# year /year. Packer hogs are now +1.69# heavier than non-packer hogs and index hogs are the lightest at 212.91#. I am looking forward to today's kill to see if it is a bit light following the small number of hogs purchased yesterday. Purchases and kill numbers are highly correlated but not on a day-to-day basis.

The JJJs are now trading premium to the index by 3.80.

With cutouts holding up fairly well, carcass weights showing a little weakness and the last H&P report pointing to smaller kill numbers coming before the JJJs expire, I'm inclined to try to scalp from the long side. It is working well this morning.

Best wishes,

dhm