final Purchase Index will be late.

From the Friday afternoon reports the model projects that the Purchase Index will be down -$0.45 and the component on the Friday kill will drop between -0.15 and -0.45. The afternoon reports are not as dependable as the morning reports but at this point they are the best that I have available.

On average over the past six-years from this date until the JJJs go to cash settlement, the average change has been a drop of -3.94. This was exasperated by the -21.81 drop in 2014. If that drop is ignored, the change becomes a decline of -0.95. The most it gained during that time period was +5.77 in 2015.

I doubt very much that we will see the maximum loss of -21.81 seen in 2014 exceeded this year. Based on the Premium of 4.01 that the JJJs have over the component, one can conclude that traders think the Index jumps 4.01. As I look over the numbers, that projection seems reasonable to me.

And I conclude, then, that there are going to be some very good trading opportunities in the JJJs over the next 28 trading days as technical, emotional and fundamental data points jerk traders this was and then that way.

From the early morning quotes someone is thinking a "Gap" opening of nearly a point, and I say, "Don't think so!"

I have an order working to sell one JJJ at 71.475.

Best wishes,

dhm